If you are a regular reader of my blog posts, you know I love numbers. As they say, numbers don’t lie...right? Well, I’m here to tell you that, while they might not fib, numbers can undoubtedly deceive. Now that colleges and universities have released their 2019 regular decisions, I thought it might be enlightening to review some of the most selective colleges and see what we can distill. My goal is to educate prospective students when they are crafting their college lists, and, more importantly, when they are forming their expectations.
Let’s start with the most commonly quoted statistic: Overall Admissions Acceptance Rate. Whether it is U.S. News and World Report or a simple Google search result, the most common admissions rate represents the percentage of total admitted students to total applications. Here are this year’s reported Overall Admissions Acceptance Rates for the Ivy League schools:
There are indeed some obvious truths within these figures. First, it’s really really hard to get into an Ivy League school! According to the National Center for Education Statistics, there are more than 40,000 high schools in the United States. That means that there are over 40,000 valedictorians and over 40,000 salutatorians! As the numbers show, only 21,168 acceptances were handed out by the Ivy League schools this year. So, there were, at a minimum, nearly 60,000 valedictorians and salutatorians who were denied admission to these elite institutions.
Faced with this daunting reality, many students and parents quickly pull up the next most quoted admissions statistic: Early Admissions Acceptance Rate. All eight of the Ivy League schools have some form of early admission policy. Whether it is binding early decision or restrictive early action, the acceptance rates look much much better...or do they?
Here are this year’s reported Early Admissions Acceptance Rates for the Ivy League schools:
It doesn’t take a STEM genius to quickly conclude that one’s odds of getting into an Ivy League school are dramatically better by applying early. A student’s chance of getting into Harvard appears to increase by nearly 300%, from 4.5% to 13.4%! In fact, all of the schools seem to have a similar advantage. So, is that the answer? This is where the numbers start to hide rather than reveal.
It’s important to understand who applies early. If you are a recruited athlete, coaches typically demand that you apply early. It is a formality since that student has most likely already been reviewed and conditionally approved by admissions. Next, legacies are often encouraged to apply early to demonstrate their loyalty to their family’s alma mater. Don’t forget about all those generous donors we’ve heard so much about lately. They too typically apply early. It is essential to understand that the admission rate for all of these groups is very very high. So, what if you don’t have one of these hooks? What are your real chances? I think it is best to answer that by looking at the Regular Admissions Acceptance Rate.
The Regular Admissions Acceptance Rate is the best proxy to gauge the admission chances for a typical “unhooked” candidate. Here are this year’s reported Regular Admissions Acceptance Rates for the Ivy League schools (note that I have added deferred students, if I had the data, to the number of applicants reviewed for regular admissions rates):
As you can see, these admission rates are even lower than the reported Overall Admissions Acceptance Rates I reviewed earlier. The institutions do not highlight these rates. Why? Well, for one, it highlights their eliteness. Would over 36,000 students apply regular decision to Harvard if they knew their chance of admission was less than 3%? Maybe so, but at least they would apply with their eyes wide open and their expectations appropriately lowered.
So, when reviewing colleges, dive into the numbers. Calculate your admission rate. If you have a hook, the Early Admissions Acceptance Rate might be more appropriate. If you are like most, ignore the Overall Admissions Acceptance Rate and use the Regular Admissions Acceptance Rate. Create your college list accordingly. To be sure, some schools with early decision policies view those applicant as if they have the hook of commitment. Seek out the advice of a college counselor in figuring out your application strategy. You typically have only one shot early, make it count!
Here are the same tables for some selective non-Ivy schools. Enjoy!
